Drop chance thread

[Buffalo Bell]

This is a thread for gathering data on drop chances! Maybe if we collect enough info on certain drop chances of items it can be added to the wiki. I had this idea when I decided to farm a Barrel Shield. Took around 540 barrels to get. Next time I decide to farm something, be it a card, item, or mat, I'm going to record the results for this thread. Feel free to report your own data. Don't consider all the things you farmed before you started counting, since if you're not counting it's not relevant to determining the drop chance.

Results are here

 

[Buffalo Bell]

Farming for Plasma Bracelet from Wisp, killed 28 to get one.

 

[MrChocodemon]

That's slightly too late. I farmed the barrel shield yesterday and, of course, didn't count.

 

[Buffalo Bell]

That was depressing. I needed to farm 126 wisps to get a second Bracelet.

I found 12 Brawler's Plates and Brawler's Card though.

 

[GarlicJelly]

That was depressing. I needed to farm 126 wisps to get a second Bracelet.

I found 12 Brawler's Plates and Brawler's Card though.

That's a lot of cards my friend. Are you sure you're not cheating? XD

Edit: Don't mind me, I'm drunk and can't read. XD

 

[MrChocodemon]

I made a chart in which you can add your values for items
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qryIne6bbzofpXsj2hArrEHyRhF1CAXS6GI0d33Lgw0/edit?usp=sharing

Edit: And i'm going to start a new game just for the Barrel Shield

 

[Buffalo Bell]

That's a lot of cards my friend. Are you sure you're not cheating? XD

Edit: Don't mind me, I'm drunk and can't read. XD

I'm a little toasted too. I left out an "a" which kinda made it confusing. I also found one of those elusive Pecko cards.
I have all the best gear for my build now, I just need to get my cards and pet in order. I'm going to attempt Temple of Seasons for the first time first though.

@MrChocodemon
Thanks for throwing together the spreadsheet, I will link it in the OP.

 

[MrChocodemon]

Nice, first round barrel shield and dropped after 151 Barrels
Edit: Second round was faster than legal. 48 Barrels
3rd run = 510 Barrels

 

[Buffalo Bell]

Wow, lucky!

 

[KoBeWi]

If you want it to be reliable, you should farm each item like 50-100 times and take the average. Good luck!

I think it would be easier to ask devs if they share the values. This also reminds me of my topic on the old forum, where I suggested drop chances to be shown in game.

Spoiler: Part of ancient post

Rarity is an information that appears in enemies' section of codex. I made few concepts how to implement this, but they are just icons put roughly on current layout.

Assuming that item rarity is graded from 1 to 5:
-first one shows the mentioned stars
-second is a colored text indicator, the texts from most common are: common, casual, moderate, rare, legend ; and colors are: cyan, green, yellow, orange, red
-third is just a fold colored as previous
-fourth are like stars, but with color and in circular (or any) shape
-and the last shows the percent values

 

[MrChocodemon]

If you want it to be reliable, you should farm each item like 50-100 times and take the average. Good luck!

I think it would be easier to ask devs if they share the values. This also reminds me of my topic on the old forum, where

I made the chart support endless tries and if just 10% of the forum users help, we all just have to post 1 value to get a good estimation.

And i'm not sure that the devs have a comprehensive list of all drop chances.

 

[KoBeWi]

And i'm not sure that the devs have a comprehensive list of all drop chances.

They are probably stored somewhere in decimal values (e.g. 0.4 for 40%). They would just need to write them down from database... Seems like a bit of work, but still better than farming everything (because you want drop rates for EVERY item, do you?). I'm not saying farming is pointless, I just suggested a lazy alternative.

 

[Buffalo Bell]

Yes, the devs would have access to that information. A lot of times develops like to hide that information though. The fact that you can't see precise skill damage scaling and stuff makes me think the developers in this game would like to keep a lot of the numbers behind the scenes.

 

[MrChocodemon]

I know thast he has access to this data. The question is how he stores it and as the game is programmed in C# i think he made each monster into an individual class and so each drop rate is stored in each monster class.
IF he wanted a list of each item drop rate, he have to look into each monster.
I guess it is somewhat structured like this


So i'd be some work on Teddys site, but he's propably going to change most values anyway along the Developement, so i don't know if he even wants to make this effort.

Also, if we do this we can give feedback in some way. Is this the drop rate fair? We can find out and help make this game even better. It's not just about having a number.
And i don't think we need that for every item. Pot shards, apples and other ultra commons won't be necessary. I guess pot shards have around 50% drop chance, maybe more.

 

[Buffalo Bell]

I added confidence intervals to the spreadsheet. For the longest time I couldn't figure out why my equation wasn't working and it was because I was using a "." for decimals instead of a "," and I was using "," for function arguments rather than ";", but eventually I figured it out. Must be a European thing?

 

[MrChocodemon]

"Must be a European thing?"
In programming a "." is used rather then a "," for the decimal point and ";" is often used as the end of a function or individual parameters.
So, no. It's not a european thing. It's a programming thing^-^

Ps: That's pretty cool. Thanks for that.

 

[Buffalo Bell]

You got it backwards. I was using a ".", eventually I had to use a ",". I'm used to the "." as a programmer and as an American, in the United States, Canada, and United Kingdom "." is used; while in a lot of other European countries and French Canada "," is used (that's why I made the European comment).

As for "," vs ";", depends on the programming language, both are really common. The reason I was using "," and didn't think to try ";" is because that is how Google Spreadsheets does it in my locale and also how it is referenced in the manual.

I think it's weird that Google doesn't localize the function interface.

PS. Thanks. It was fun reading up on statistics. The equation I used to determine the confidence interval is the Wilson Score method.

 

[MrChocodemon]

You got it backwards. I was using a ".", eventually I had to use a ",".

Well damn, that is weird.

 

[GarlicJelly]

You got it backwards. I was using a ".", eventually I had to use a ",". I'm used to the "." as a programmer and as an American, in the United States, Canada, and United Kingdom "." is used; while in a lot of other European countries and French Canada "," is used (that's why I made the European comment).

As for "," vs ";", depends on the programming language, both are really common. The reason I was using "," and didn't think to try ";" is because that is how Google Spreadsheets does it in my locale and also how it is referenced in the manual.

I think it's weird that Google doesn't localize the function interface.

PS. Thanks. It was fun reading up on statistics. The equation I used to determine the confidence interval is the Wilson Score method.

Here in Australia they use "." to show decimals and "," is used to show big numbers eg. 25500 would be written 25,500 where the "," is just to break up the long number sequence so that it's easier to read. I think in Sweden we just put a space inbetween so 25500 would be written 25 500 to make it easier to read.